At the 15th convocation of ICFAI University, Dr. C. Rangarajan (former RBI Governor and ex-Chairman of the PM’s Economic Advisory Council) laid out an ambitious roadmap:
To achieve the vision of a “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India) by 2047 — 100 years after Independence — India’s nominal GDP will need to grow at 11.4% per year for the next 25 years.
The Math Behind the Target
• Assuming inflation at 4% (a standard assumption in monetary policy), real GDP would still have to grow around 7.4% annually — higher than India’s average real growth of 6.1% between 2012-13 and 2023-24.
• This would take per capita income to $18,414 by 2047-48 (from $2,381 today), crossing the World Bank’s threshold for a high-income nation.
Context from the World
Sustained double-digit nominal growth is rare but not unprecedented:
• China clocked an average ~10% real GDP growth from the late 1970s to early 2000s, lifting 800 million people out of poverty.
• South Korea maintained high single-digit growth from the 1960s–80s, transitioning from an agrarian economy to a tech powerhouse.
• Vietnam, post-Doi Moi reforms (1986), has averaged 6–7% real growth for three decades and is now an emerging manufacturing hub.
However, these success stories hinged on three common pillars: massive investment in infrastructure, technology adoption, and labour-force upskilling — exactly the levers Dr. Rangarajan highlights for India.
Uneven Growth Challenges
The article points out sharp disparities between states:
• Required nominal growth rates range from as low as 8.7% (Tamil Nadu) to as high as 17.4% (Bihar) and 14.5% (Uttar Pradesh).
• Just six states — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, and West Bengal — contribute over 52% of national GDP, underscoring how uneven growth can be.
What Needs to Happen
To stay on this path, India must:
• Raise investment rates by at least 2 percentage points.
• Absorb and deploy new technologies rapidly.
• Focus on labour-intensive sectors to create jobs.
• Expand social infrastructure to ensure inclusive growth.
Food for Thought
China and South Korea achieved their “take-off” in very different global contexts, with favourable export markets and demographic dividends. India faces a more fragmented world economy, rising trade protectionism, and climate pressures — but also unprecedented opportunities in digitalization, green energy, and a large young workforce.
If India needs 11.4% annual GDP growth for 25 years, what one lever do you believe will matter most — massive infrastructure investment, technology adoption, state-level reforms, or something else entirely?