President Trump announced that starting August 1, 2025, a 25% tariff will be imposed on Indian imports into the U.S. Additionally, India faces a separate penalty linked to its continued energy and defense partnerships with Russia. This move comes amid stalled trade negotiations and disagreements over agriculture, autos, dairy, and pharmaceuticals.
Indian Stock Markets & Currency
The Indian rupee has already slipped to around ₹87=USD1 as capital outflows accelerate and investor sentiment turns cautious.
Sectors likely to feel the immediate impact include steel, aluminum, pharmaceuticals, autos, and agriculture-related exports.
Equity market corrections may be triggered, especially in export-heavy segments, and foreign institutional investment is likely to remain under pressure short-term
Companies like Tata Steel and other metal exporters may suffer sharp losses due to heightened tariff exposure. In a prior June tariff hike, these stocks fell up to ~3% The Economic Times.
Global firms with supply chains in India—like Apple, which plans to expand iPhone sourcing from India—may see margins squeezed or be forced to reallocate production
This is a major escalation in U.S.–India trade relations and marks a stark shift from earlier optimism on a “Mission 500” deal to hit $500 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.
I’ve noticed this pattern quite often (with only a few exceptions): when the NIFTY50 opens significantly higher or lower than the previous day’s close—either a gap-up or a gap-down—major market participants often move it back toward a level they seem to prefer.
Take today as an example. Despite the gap-down open and all the prevailing geopolitical concerns that logically supported a bearish sentiment, the entire gap was eventually filled. It’s as if the market moved contrary to the obvious narrative, returning to where the big players intended it to be.
But here’s the catch: most retail traders struggle to take the contrarian view in such situations. It’s not what they’ve been taught. Traditional wisdom often emphasize trend-following or textbook setups, so going against the grain feels too risky or counterintuitive. And that’s exactly where the smart money takes advantage.
Gap fills can happen but with a 40-50% probability only. Also in bull markets dips get bought. Reverse will happen in a bear market.
The catch however is that no one knows with any certainity when the bull or bear market will start or how long a cycle will last. Market can also remain irrational for longer than a trader can remain solvent
Don’t know much on the technical analysis part, but going by the expected panic in the market? Markets havent reacted as much as predicte? Have priced in already.
I guess,Jane street comeback seems slowly started reflecting in Index F&O. Todays Technical Chart Reflects similar picture. Market sentiment & Nifty50 chart speaks volume .
